Sunday, September 28, 2008

Phillies Clinch NL East!

My friends and I went to a classic Phillies game on Saturday, that statistics can not adequately describe. The figure above is from a cool website called It's able to track the win probability as the game goes on. It also measures the "leverage index (LI)" or importance of each at bat as the game goes along. You can notice a big dip in probability and increase in leverage with a "C Guzman Single". That single made the game 4-3 and loaded the bases with only one out. The graph can't fails to illustrate the next play which appeared to be a lead changing single, but was turned into a game ending double play.

There are also some pretty cool statistics measured on this site including WPA (Win Probablitiy Added), and Clutch.

Since I know you're interested, rankings of a few players in WPA for the 2008 season:
1. Manny Ramerez: 7.03
2. Lance Berkman: 6.68
3. Albert Pujols: 6.22
8. Carlos Beltran: 4.53
9. Joe Mauer: 4.52 (top in AL)
11. Pat Burrell: 3.78 (top for phillies)
39. Jason Giambi: 2.17 (yes he was ranked above Howard)
40. Ryan Howard: 2.17 (NL MVP or MVP of the month? - he leads in September WPA)
50. Jack Cust: 1.85 (sadly, the top athletic)
148 (last). Jeff Francoeur: -3.91

Tops in "clutch" (WPA/(LI-(WPA/LI))):

1. Stephan Drew: 2.29
2. Lance Berkman: 1.82
3. Dustin Pedroia: 1.52
8. Pat Burrell: 1.15 (top for phillies)
115. Ryan Howard: -0.76
145 (4th to last): Chase Utley: -2.11 (I don't think phillies fans noticed)
148 (last): Alex Rodriguez: -3.09 (ny fans might have been right this year?)

And FYI for pitchers WPA:
WPA: Starters
Cliff Lee6.22
Tim Lincecum4.73
CC Sabathia4.69
Roy Halladay4.48
Johan Santana4.41
WPA: Relievers
Brad Lidge5.43
Mariano Rivera4.47
Joakim Soria4.42
Joe Nathan3.73
Carlos Marmol3.71
(Hamels is 15th for starters)

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