Tuesday, September 23, 2008

2008 Election: State Rankings - 9/23/08

(Rank, State, Score (max=1))
1. Pennsylvania - .854
2. Michigan - .775
3. Florida - .685
4. Minnesota - .675
5. Colorado - .652
6. Wisconsin - .620
7. Washington - .589
8. New Jersey - .583
9. Ohio - .576
10. Virgina -.560

Just Missed: North Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana, Oregon, Nevada
(2000 Florida would rank 1st, 2004 Ohio would rank 2nd just below Pennsylvania)

See my intro - for the explanation of the question and methods for this project.
Current National Average: +3.0 for Obama
Nate Sliver's top 5 tipping point states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virgina, Colorado, and Michigan

The states at the top seem to be more Obama leaning states possibly because of a recent Obama bump in the national polls. It's possible that some of the state data has yet to catchup with the national data. The list is filled with larger states possibly to a fault. I'm considering changing the 50/50 designation. I'd love to hear feedback.

A couple of surprises on the list:
1. Pennsylvania - seemed to be a strong obama state, but polls have been mixed lately, very close to national average
8. New Jersey - see Pa
9 and 10. Ohio and Virgina - would expect to see these states at the top of the list. Seem to be running a few points behind national average for Obama.

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