The All-Time Greatest College Football Teams: Where are they Headed?

(rankings as of 12/3/08, click on table for larger image)

The teams highlighted blue are likely to advance in the rankings in the future, while the teams in red look like they will fall based on the last ten year win percentage, 2009 recruiting rank, and current BCS rank. Any suggestions on how to make this more scientific?

Teams with a conference championship (Big Twelve, SEC) have a slight advantage. I also give an advantage t0 two teams with nice locations (USC, Texas). Let's not kid ourselves - many good players would rather play in the sun at USC instead of frigid State College. Notice Alabama has the worst win percentage in the last ten year, but seems to be turning it around with a nice year and a quality recruiting class. Nebraska and Tennessee seemed to be failing out of the spotlight lately, and with poor performances on the field and with recruiting it will be tough to regain momentum. Notre Dame has really lost it's luster lately, and it doesn't look like Charlie Weis will be the one to bring them back.

Pretty amazing how these powerhouses just keep going. Five of the top 10 teams are going to be playing the top tier bowls.

Notes:
1. Win percentage statistics generated by stassen.

2. rankings of non-bcs teams from usa today.

3. 2009 recruiting rankings from rivals

Two Point Conversions

Last Sunday in the 2nd week of NFL season the Denver Broncos defeated the San Diego Chargers in an exciting 39-38 game. The Broncos make a controversial decision to go for a 2 point conversion down 38-37 with 29 seconds left, declining to take the 1 pt extra point for the tie.

Disregarding the broncos successful attempt - the question is: what was the statistically correct move?

-Most NFL fans and analysts would say the extra point - based on the fact that the broncos would tie the game and have a 50% chance of winning in overtime. This is basically the conventional wisdom. “As a general rule, I feel like I have an obligation to my team to give them a chance to win the game in overtime by kicking an extra point,” Jeff Fisher, the Tennessee Titans’ coach, said, “not by winning or losing the game on one play.”

However, the alternative (the 2 point conversion) has had a varying success rate since it's existence. This New York Times article describes this rate, including this interesting fact: "Last season, N.F.L. teams converted just 30 of 61 attempts, a paltry .492 success rate". (This rate has varied since the 2-point it's existence, but has been more successful lately possibly because of decrease incidence and better play calling). The same article mentions the success rate of an extra point is slightly below 99 percent.

Another scenario to account for is the broncos missing the 2 point conversion, kicking an onside kick (10-15 percent success rate), then scoring in the final ~30 seconds (probably a 20-30 percent assuming successful onside kick). This would indicate an additional 1-3 percent increase in the win probability for the 2-point conversion.

It is hard to take every variable to account including each player on the field, but I estimate the 2-point conversion was the correct statistical call by a very small margin. This is sometimes difficult to comprehend, Since it's a dichotomous result. Close to 50 percent of the time choosing the 2-point conversion will be fail and be the "wrong" chose.

“Sometimes you have to go with your gut,” Shanahan said. “I just felt like it was a chance for us to put them away. I didn’t want to count on the coin flip. I wanted to do it then, and obviously it worked out.”

While, I am not a fan of the phrase "going with your gut" (did his lunch make the decision?), I must commend Shannhan for taking this risk. Most coaches (like Jeff Fisher) tend toward be more conservative, choosing the statistically incorrect decision when it has high risk that could be later be blamed on the coach.

I admire Mike Shanahan for his longevity, unique use of "skill players" like running backs, and his ability to lay himself on the line by taking risky decision that is statistically accurate. Just not his post-explanations. ;)

Fantasy Football Drafting Theories

Fantasy Football season is about to begin. The best part, the draft, has all ready past - so let me share with you a few of my theories based a bit on data, guts and observational study.

1. When drafting one should consider players "VORP"

-VORP - Value of Replacement Player is a statistic develop by the sabermetric community in baseball, but can be used in fantasy football quite well. When deciding between a backup qb and a fourth running back near the last rounds - one should think about who will be available on the waiver wire. If there will be several quarterbacks of equal value to the one you're considering drafting, then maybe you should go a different route.

It is important to utilize the waiver wire - and realize you do not always have to draft 2 qbs, 2 tight ends, 2 defenses, and a kicker. You can always pickup the equivalent backup later on the waiver wire.

2. Old players suck - avoid them

This study suggests that players start declining at age 28 for running back, 30 for reciever, and 32 for quarterbacks.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/age.htm

There are several problems with this study:

1. It does not evaluate the percentage decrease/increase of performance

2. It evaluates all players equal - scrubs and superstars (maybe superstars - the one who matter to fantasy leagues, decline later)

3. It makes arbitrary categories on age, instead of analyzing data as continuous.

Well I take what I can get in terms of data. I'm too lazy to analyze the data myself. Either way, I am still a believer in the theory that well known, older players are going to be overvalued by the average fantasy manager.

3. Draft running backs on Good Teams

Teams that usually win are not only scoring more, but usually running out the clock in the 4th quarter - giving running backs some extra carries.

"The correlation between first quarter rushing attempts and team wins is a measly .171. That means there is almost no connection between running a lot in the first quarter, and winning a lot of games. The correlation between fourth quarter rushing attempts and team wins, on the other hand, is .750. That’s a size able relationship."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2003/07/14/ramblings/stat-analysis/3/

4. Draft receivers on Bad Teams, with decent QBs

The converse of this - when teams are playing from behind they have to throw more giving better stats to the receivers.

5. Draft many more running backs and wide receivers

In a typical league you will start 2 or 3 Running Backs and Wide outs, while only starting 1 QB, TE, and Def. There are over 30 starters for each position

6. Concentrate on Yards instead of TDs

Especially for Running Backs - TDs are a lot of luck. Look at Willie Parker last year who only had 2 TDs despite being one of the leading rushers. The previous year he had 16 TDs with a similar yardage amount. Yards gained are going to be a lot more constant (less variable) than TDs, with TD vultures, etc.

7. Don't over think things

There is a lot of variability and luck in fantasy football. You cannot really control injuries for the most part, and predicting results on a week to week basis is little better than a crap shoot. Players come out of nowhere each year like Derek Anderson, Jason Witten, and Ryan Grant last year. Solid producers like Shaun Alexander, Preist Holmes and Marvin Harrison can drop off a cliff any given year. Just pick some guys you think should do well loosely based on statistics and the other above measures, then pick some guys you enjoy rooting for.

8. Finally, actually show up to the draft!

I actually missed my keeper league draft this year, and got screwed. Yahoo decided I needed 10 backup QBs like Charlie Batch. So i'll be working the waivers heavily this year.