Monday, March 16, 2009

Does the NCAA Selection Committee Use Regression Analysis?

The committees job is to pick and rank the 65 best college basketball teams (including those who won their conference tournaments). They want to choose the teams that are most likely to win games in the NCAA tournament. Now, regression analysis seems like a perfect tool for this type of dilemma, but does the selection committee use it?

Based on the slow involvement of statistics in other sports, my guess is no.

When college basketball experts talk about using "computers", I fear they are only talking comparing team's RPIs and Strength of Schedules via an eye test. The problem with these two measurements is that they are co-linear (a statistical way of saying too similar). All teams that have crappy RPIs are going to have crappy SOSs, like Penn State, since SOS is a part of RPI. Do we know how likely these measures predict success? I don't know, but there is a lot data from previous tournaments and it would be easy to determine. However, RPI and SOS would only explain a portion of the variability of the model. There are a lot of other variables that should be considered like record in the last 10 games, previous performance in tournaments, margin of victory, and potential injuries to key players. If these variables could help better predict a winning outcome (explain more of the variability in the model) then they should be included.

Yeah it's a human decision, and the committee does look at these variables and takes them into account. But there is a huge amount of bias in a purely human decision. It should be the human's decision to determine the variables in the regression analysis that makes the final decision. The committee may think that RPI is the most important variable and deserves the most weight. This may be true, but their assumption should at least be tested by regression.

During the selection show last night a committee member started to explain how they chose Arizona/Dayton over the other bubble teams. He emphasized that teams chosen were based on playing a competitive schedule throughout the year and winning quality games away from home. Of course Penn State had two huge road wins (MSU, Illinois) and Arizona didn't have any (and were 1-5 in their last six games). It's quite possible that the regression could have chosen the same 65 teams, but it would be interesting to see the analysis.

24 comments:

allovertheeowl said...

Need new posts.

Anonymous said...

viagra effects on women viagra doseage viagra overnight generic brands of viagra online buy viagra soft online does watermelon have viagra effect viagra over the counter levitra vs viagra how does viagra work viagra uk cost pill viagra sales viagra and alcohol uk alternative viagra viagra rrp australia

Anonymous said...

рецепты похудение вы всегда сможете скачать курсы английского языка
английский язык для начинающих если заболели Buy Levitra Online
скачать фильмы скачать фильм 2012

Anonymous said...

Bonjour I'd like to thank you for such a terrific made forum!
thought this would be a nice way to make my first post!

Sincerely,
Edwyn Sammy
if you're ever bored check out my site!
[url=http://www.partyopedia.com/articles/finding-nemo-party-supplies.html]finding nemo Party Supplies[/url].

Anonymous said...

[url=http://satrise.ru/familiya/sitemap_0.html]происхождение фамилии[/url]
а также
[url=http://satrise.ru/]происхождение фамилии[/url]
а также
[url=http://znacheniie.ru/]происхождение фамилии[/url]
а также
[url=http://znacheniie.ru/sitemap_0.html]значение фамилии[/url]
мои сайты для вас
значение фамилии
а также
происхождение фамилии
а также
значение фамилии
а также
происхождение фамилии
а также
Посмотреть фильм онлайн бесплатно
[url=http://nasharussia3.rv.ua/]скачать фильм Наша раша Яйца судьбы[/url]
смотреть онлайн Наша раша Яйца судьбы
Посмотреть фильм онлайн бесплатно
Просмотр фильма мне бы в небо а также смотрите кинопремьера скоро
[url=http://nasharushakino.rv.ua/]скачать фильм Наша раша Яйца судьбы[/url]
скачать фильм Наша раша Яйца судьбы
Посмотреть фильм онлайн бесплатно вместе с семьей
Samsung lcd

Anonymous said...

Nice post and this enter helped me alot in my college assignement. Gratefulness you as your information.

Anonymous said...

После вселенской катастрофы Америка превратилась в выжженную пустыню. По дорогам которым нет конца, кишащим бандами, воюющими между собой за воду и еду, путешествует безстрашный Илай. Однажды он попадает в мрачные края, где когда-то находился прекрасный штат Калифорния, а теперь это сущий ад, где бесчинствует тиран Карнеги.
книга илая онлайн фильм

Anonymous said...

Easily I assent to but I dream the post should have more info then it has.

Anonymous said...

[color=#5588aa]
Не знаеш сколько времени я тут сижу? мм.. есть cупер предложение по[url=http://www.pi7.ru] видео[/url] порталу Думаю вам понравится

[url=http://www.pi7.ru]вагина крупным планом[/url]
aнекдот для разнообразия :)

Купил мужик себе в курятник нового петуха. Тот вообще какой-то озабоченный был, по десятку кур в день ебал. Да и не только кур, а вообще всю птицу, которую увидит. И вор однажду заохдит мужик в курятнки, а там петух валяетмя дохлый в луже грязи, а вокруг вороны сборались. Мужик и говорит петуху:
- Что ж ты так, Петя, себя не поберёг?
Тот притокрывает один глаз и шипит:
- Сукак, спугнёшь ворон, тебя выебу.

Я 6 часов блуждала по сети, пока не вышела на ваш форум! Думаю, я здесь останусь надолго!
прошу прощения за опечаткм.... очень маленькая клавиатура у PDA!

[/color]

Anonymous said...

dating a younger man [url=http://loveepicentre.com/]singles wiccan pagan[/url] the best and largest dating site for intergenerational older women http://loveepicentre.com/ free singles

Anonymous said...

This is my first post I'd love to congratulate you for such a great quality forum!
Just thought this is a nice way to make my first post!
In order to increase capital it is usually a sharp conclusion to start a savings or investing strategy as soon in life as obtainable. But don't fear if you have not begun saving your capital until later on in life. As a consequence of honest work, that is experimenting the best investment vehicles for your capital you can slowly but surely increase your property so that it amounts to a sizable sum by the time you wish to retire. Watch all of the accessible asset classes from stocks to real estate as investments for your money. A wisely diversified portfolio of investments in different asset classes can help your money build throughout the years.

-Ashlee Markgraf
[url=http://urwealthy.com]currency conversion [/url]

Anonymous said...

Hello. My wife and I bought our house about 6 months ago. It was a foreclosure and we were able to get a great deal on it. We also took advantage of the 8K tax credit so that definitely helped. We did an extensive remodeling job and now I want to refinance to cut the term to a 20 or 15 year loan. Does anyone know any good sites for mortgage information? Thanks!

Mike

Anonymous said...

Мульти портал. Есть все, почти всё. Немного из навигации сайта.

[url=http://pi7.ru/]Видео юмор[/url]
--------------------------------------- |
Анекдотик, не помешает... :)
Купил мужик себе в курятник нового петуха. Тот вообще какой-то озабоченный был, по десятку кур в день ебал. Да и не только кур, а вообще всю птицу, которую увидит. И вот однажды заходит мужик в курятник, а там петух валяется дохлый в луже грязи, а вокруг вороны собрались. Мужик и говорит петуху:
- Что ж ты так, Петя, себя не поберёг?
Тот приоткрывает один глаз и шипит:
- Сука, спугнёшь ворон, тебя [url=http://pi7.ru]выебу[/url].

блуждала по сети , [URL=http://pi7.ru][IMG]http://pi7.ru/pleer.gif[/IMG][/URL]

Anonymous said...

Хорошая статья. Действительно было интересно почитать. Не часто такое и встречается та.Наверное стоит подписаться на ваше RSS

Anonymous said...

http://healthportalonline.in/carbamazepine/carbamazepine-with-valproic-acid-together
[url=http://healthportalonline.in/cardizem/mylan-cardizem]how to get cleaned for drug test[/url] drug stores us [url=http://healthportalonline.in/carbamazepine/carbamazepine-chemical-structure]carbamazepine chemical structure[/url]
cialis compare levitra viagra http://healthportalonline.in/cephalexin/how-long-is-cephalexin
[url=http://healthportalonline.in/carbamazepine/carbamazepine-addictive]online pharmacy soboxin[/url] blog comment online pharmacy post [url=http://healthportalonline.in/carbohydrate]carbohydrate[/url]
illinois pdl drug list http://healthportalonline.in/caffeine/naturally-shorten-periods-caffeine
[url=http://healthportalonline.in/cialis/lily-icos-cialis-online]medicine to relieve arthritis pain[/url] norvasc drug [url=http://healthportalonline.in/celecoxib/celebrex-celecoxib-indiana]celebrex celecoxib indiana[/url] tx felony drug law [url=http://healthportalonline.in/cholesterol/foods-with-hdl-cholesterol]foods with hdl cholesterol[/url]

Anonymous said...

travel family riccione http://atravel.in/cruises_vacations-to-go-holland-amer-cruises astral travel oil mixtures
[url=http://atravel.in/car-rental_car-rental-seatac-airport]us militarty travel[/url] last minute travel airline [url=http://atravel.in/plane-tickets_premium-economy-plane-tickets]premium economy plane tickets[/url]
porterville travel http://atravel.in/disneyland_webcam-disneyland-paris
[url=http://atravel.in/travel_travel-to-stone-henge-from-london]dharamsala prem travel[/url] travel lodge plympton [url=http://atravel.in/tourist_napa-valley-tourist-bureau]napa valley tourist bureau[/url]
easiest way to remove snow from top of travel trailer http://atravel.in/plane-tickets_plane-tickets-to-anchorage pictures of places to travel [url=http://atravel.in/lufthansa_boeing-abl-seattle]boeing abl seattle[/url]

Anonymous said...

fred thompson the only adult http://xwe.in/bondage/female-sexual-bondage
[url=http://xwe.in/thong/free-thong-pic-galleries]sexy cam girl stripping video clip[/url] three sexy teens one guy sex [url=http://xwe.in/oral/aviane-oral-contraceptive]aviane oral contraceptive[/url]
sexy girl next door pictures http://xwe.in/archive-adult/sunland-park-new-mexico-adult-store
[url=http://xwe.in/hcg-oral/oral-saline-laxitive-lose-weight]sexy pokemon dawn hentai[/url] best adult video search engine [url=http://xwe.in/adult-video/free-adult-video-downloads]free adult video downloads[/url]
adult intertianment http://xwe.in/orgy/orgy-party-downloads
[url=http://xwe.in/erotic-gay]infection anal gland canine[/url] joanna jojo levesque hentai [url=http://xwe.in/adult-xxx/chester-county-adult-school]chester county adult school[/url]
portland maine adult ed classes http://xwe.in/nylon/ultra-high-pressure-nylon-tubing
[url=http://xwe.in/orgy/public-teen-orgy]sexy scenes of shamitta shetty[/url] anal semen drinkers [url=http://xwe.in/nylon/nylon-rainwear]nylon rainwear[/url]

Anonymous said...

fashion design colleges http://www.thefashionhouse.us/green-men-underwear-color53.html puma shoes limited editions [url=http://www.thefashionhouse.us/39-men-size28.html]teen designer wallpaper series[/url] matt and lauren harris dothan
http://www.thefashionhouse.us/de-puta-madre-69-dress-shirts-brand15.html chanel eyewear [url=http://www.thefashionhouse.us/versace-casual-jacket-for-women-grey-item14.html]bostonian shoes[/url]

Anonymous said...

domnatricks shoes http://luxefashion.us/true-religion-men-brand17.html kiwi shoeshine kit [url=http://luxefashion.us/gucci-sweaters-brand12.html]babes take off their clothes[/url] lauren london posters
http://luxefashion.us/delmaro-dress-shirts-brand45.html fashion roaring twenties [url=http://luxefashion.us/xxl-button-down-tops-shirts-size8.html]fiore shoes bargain[/url]

Anonymous said...

cause reason health care cost growth increase [url=http://usadrugstoretoday.com/products/parlodel.htm]parlodel[/url] how does nickel affect human health http://usadrugstoretoday.com/products/xenical.htm
freeware health records [url=http://usadrugstoretoday.com/products/quibron-t.htm]quibron t[/url] can hormone changes cause yeast infections [url=http://usadrugstoretoday.com/catalogue/l.htm ]class 3 medical mitral valve prolapse [/url] herbal cures for asthma
antibiotics for cold flu does work [url=http://usadrugstoretoday.com/products/nimotop.htm]nimotop[/url] arm muscle tendon description http://usadrugstoretoday.com/products/fludac.htm
heart of darkness acopalyse now siddhartha [url=http://usadrugstoretoday.com/catalogue/k.htm]Buy generic and brand medications[/url] b cell lymphoproliferation disorder [url=http://usadrugstoretoday.com/categories/artrite.htm ]rosco medical supply [/url] after life loss surgery weight

Anonymous said...

http://xpv.in/cephalexin/ingredients-cephalexin
[url=http://xpv.in/rabeprazole/novo-rabeprazole]how to buy illegal drugs[/url] negative effects of sexual enhancement drugs [url=http://xpv.in/cholesterol/blood-pressure-and-cholesterol-combination-drugs]blood pressure and cholesterol combination drugs[/url]
drug test cost indianapolis http://xpv.in/doxepin/doxepin-hck
[url=http://xpv.in/doxazosin/what-is-doxazosin-mesylate]brooks pharmacy mass[/url] prescription drugs uk nhs medicine references [url=http://xpv.in/amaryl/buy-amaryl]buy amaryl[/url]
compare viagra cialis levitra http://xpv.in/quetiapine/quetiapine-overdose-and-tardive-dyskinesia
[url=http://xpv.in/quetiapine/geater-than-mg-of-quetiapine]maple leaf pharmacy[/url] e t bronwe drug company [url=http://xpv.in/doxazosin/doxazosin-dosage]doxazosin dosage[/url] canada pharmacy prescription [url=http://xpv.in/divalproex/divalproex-sodium-off-label-uses]divalproex sodium off label uses[/url]

Anonymous said...

howardforums unlocking blackjack http://wqm.in/jokers_funny-jokers mgm las vegas casino
[url=http://wqm.in/jackpot_free-jackpot-party-video-slot]yahoo free bingo[/url] bingo ipod converter [url=http://wqm.in/roulette_internet-roulette-on-line]internet roulette on line[/url]
wite off lottery ticket losses http://wqm.in/slots_casino-slots-where-you-win-the-most-consistent
[url=http://wqm.in/slot_pictures-of-a-cpu-slot-processor]monico casino[/url] gambling internet indian slots casino horse patrick [url=http://wqm.in/slot_pictures-of-a-cpu-slot-processor]pictures of a cpu slot processor[/url]
gateway casinos http://wqm.in/bingo_hugel-bingo horseshoe casino boxing shreveport times [url=http://wqm.in/poker-online_poker-jack-jill]poker jack jill[/url]

Anonymous said...

cahe creek casino http://lwv.in/betting/hilton-gaming-and-betting baccarat logo mark
[url=http://lwv.in/roulette/free-roulette-powerpoint-template]winning instant pennsylvania lottery two one for ten fiv[/url] harrahs casino locations [url=http://lwv.in/casino-playing-cards/pictures-of-old-people-playing-cards]pictures of old people playing cards[/url]
tnt express delivery for uk national lottery http://lwv.in/casino-playing-cards/how-to-read-a-deck-of-playing-cards-to-tell-your-future
[url=http://lwv.in/roulette/roulette-palyaus]to win blackjack free casino game[/url] london on ca millionare lottery [url=http://lwv.in/jokers/jokers-pic]jokers pic[/url]
michigan lottery mega millions april 14 2006 http://lwv.in/slots/usps-rules-low-door-mail-slots florida fantasy 5 lottery [url=http://lwv.in/blackjack/casino-bonuses-blackjack-cards]casino bonuses blackjack cards[/url]

Anonymous said...

exsamples for movie maker [url=http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_gardens_of_the_night/]gardens of the night[/url] the dark knight batman movie figures http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_goldfinger/ serendipity movie credits
lifetime movie just breath [url=http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_step_brothers/]step brothers[/url] summary of the sword in the stone movie http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_the_gay_bed_and_breakfast_of_terror/ free jenna jamesone movie
free porno movie downloads for psp [url=http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_the_money_pit/]the money pit[/url] children movie auditions in chicago
scarface movie [url=http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_space_above_and_beyond/]space above and beyond[/url] the club poetry movie http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_the_man_who_sued_god/ porn movie title library
what is the movie mulholland drive about [url=http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_the_secret_of_life_on_earth/]the secret of life on earth[/url] linton cinemas movie times http://moviestrawberry.com/films/film_the_battle_of_the_ancre_and_the_advance_of_the_tanks/ movie alfie